Best The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order (Bridging the Gap) By Rush Doshi
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Ebook About For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it?In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.Book The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order (Bridging the Gap) Review :
China is an incredibly lucky country, and deservedly so. The basis of modern wealth creation, industrial manufacturing processes, which can take many decades to master, was handed over to China when the Western countries set up shop there. This scenario has had an unfortunate consequence for America, resulting in a tremendous decrease in the percentage of the population employed in industry. And for China, it went in the opposite direction. Admittedly, China lags behind America in high-end manufacturing, but not for long, given its patent acquisition and scientific publishing pace.Thanks to the author, one learns fascinating new insights about China’s rise and its grand strategy to “displace” America. The communist party, we understand, was a vehicle for China’s nationalist aspirations. But its leaders are not about to kick the ladder away.The author notes that America survived four waves of declinism only to emerge stronger. During the first three waves, America still had a large percentage of the population employed in the industrial sector. Although the fourth wave saw reduced employment levels in the sector, according to the author, America’s mastery of information technology helped its reemergence.There is concern that America has become less than enterprising in dealing with debilitating challenges such as the one posed by violent Islamists. America’s “War on Terror” has already cost over five trillion dollars by some estimates, with no end in sight, whereas China is attempting to divest Islamist ideology of its Uygur minorities and "integrate" them through “illiberal” tactics.As pointed out by the author, America is in the middle of its fifth wave of declinism. He is right not to write America off, just as one should not write China off in its quest either. In the long run, this competition may come down to the wealth differential between the two.I think the author failed to appreciate what the China “model” of civilizational progress entails. Under the authoritarian communism, China homogenized the society, fed its people, and educated them well, and when the manufacturing opportunity came, China was ready. In comparison, under democracy, the equally populous India has largely failed to do the above, including achieving a solid and diverse economic growth, and is now beset by divisions and insurgencies thanks to a heterogeneous society.China is likely to become more democratized regardless of the ruling regimes’ restraining attempts if history is any indication. It is only natural that the empowered people want to have a say in how they are being governed. We have seen this happen in Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, which achieved sustained wealth creation under authoritarian regimes and, much later, became functional democracies.It is important to grasp that achieving a functional democracy from the ground up requires more than free elections; it requires sustained wealth creation first. This may be a tough pill to swallow: increasingly, the American mantra of democracy promotion abroad is just not going to fly, and China is succeeding in talking up its model – you only have to read what the prime minister, Imran Khan, of Pakistan said on July 3, 2021.Well, the author has helped me find a front seat to witness this fascinating competition. The CCP files have been digitalized Rush Doshi at Yale and Brookings has labored through the ponderous task of perusal and tells us what ‘they’ think and ‘his’ response in the coming battle for who is to rule (Hegemony) making suggested damaging policy responses. Chinese theorist Yan Xiaotong describes it: ‘A race not a boxing match.’ Doshi describes the latter, or worse. *The Long Game is a very entertaining read in some ways, for the young Chinese scholars have with amazing insight unraveled the forty year demise of America’s Wonderment to now the troubling conditions of America’s Quandary in finding itself again. That search by Ludwig von Mises, Milton Freedman, and Robert Bork for the “Free Market” of Neoliberalism, resulted in reducing ‘Industrial Production’ to ‘Financial Assets,’ the collapse of the Great Recession, and a damaged Middle Class watching the soaring returns of the 1%’ers. They also understand the rise of Populism, our political fracturing, and estimate it to continuing for a decade. They describe current times accurately; our own academics often less well. “Know the Other —Sun Tzu.”Doshi is disconnected from China as it is, hung up on ideology. He misses China current antagonisms and setbacks – the existing departures from Xi Jinping’s ‘Dream’ mostly unmentioned.There is little contact with what has happened in the day to day efforts of CCP’s leadership to broaden its influence among other nations and setbacks that have been frequent, but that diminishes ‘the threat of Chinese dominance’ so no surprise. **Doshi’s concluding What Must Be Done has little to offer on rebuilding infrastructure, and retooling the role of government to promote education and social stability currently on Biden’s policy table, but the M-I-C crowd will be greatly pleased if Rush Doshi taken seriously.China sees America in demise, themselves on the road to preeminence at 2049 -- the Centennial of the Peoples’ Republic.America may be ‘Reformed,’ as many current policy advocates desire, that would reinstall our liberal leadership role and make the coming contest interesting, moving some institutions to meet the changing world; or the projected ‘loss 10 years’ of the young scholars; we’ll see? Conflict will help neither.A mixed bag.3 Stars*Ronan Farrow, in his War on Peace: The End of Diplomacy and the Decline of American Influence, argues that diplomacy is not State Department generated now the power has shifted to the Pentagon, and inner workings of National Security sectors – Doshi’s plans are so designed.**See: How China Loses: The Pushback against Chinese Global Ambitions by Luke Patey describing sever setbacks in developing nations.China's Western Horizon: Beijing and the New Geopolitics of Eurasia by Daniel Markey mentionsbombing of C. engineers’ buses as occurred 7/15/21 again in Pakistan – BRI not an easy go anywhere.The Epic Split – Why ‘Made in China’ is going out of style by Johan Nylander, as China losses 40,000 factory a year due to rising cost to other low cost countries. 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